A Risk Prediction Model For Patients With Lung Nodules
Posted: Monday, July 22, 2019
In a prospective study, Barbara Nemesure, PhD, of the Stony Brook Cancer Center, New York, and colleagues derived a model that predicts the risk of developing lung cancer in patients with lung nodules. Cancer Prevention Research published the research, which suggests that future studies focus on how the model could be applied to the general population.
“Through our model, we can identify which individuals with lung nodules should be closely monitored, so that we can catch the disease at an early stage and ultimately reduce the burden of lung cancer deaths,” said Dr. Nemesure, in a press release from the American Association for Cancer Research.
A total of 2,924 patients, who were examined at the Stony Brook Cancer Center’s Lung Cancer Evaluation Center between January 2002 and December 2015, were enrolled. The patients, who had lung nodules identified by CT scanning, were not included if they had a history of lung cancer. The patients were randomly assigned to two groups: discovery and replication (1,469 and 1,455, respectively). At the conclusion of the 13 years, a total of 171 people were diagnosed with lung cancer.
High-risk and low-risk patients were categorized in the discovery group by using a set of factors, such as age and smoking pack-years, to assess who would be likely to develop lung cancer. By using this model, the likelihood of patients who developed cancer was predicted with a sensitivity of 73% and a specificity of 81% in the replication group. The high-risk group had more than 14 times the risk of being diagnosed with lung cancer.
Disclosure: The study authors reported no conflicts of interest.
